End of the Bolsonaro Era: What the World Can Learn from Brazil

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With a sliver of sanity realising the urgent need for damage control, Brazilians have voted out their most dangerous populist leader: the science-denying, environment-damaging, guns-and-threats-embracing President Jair Bolsonaro. The bombshell return of their leftist former president, Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva – who was freed from prison once corruption charges against him were annulled last year – is one to celebrate, mostly as it symbolises an end to Brazil’s worst nightmare. And because it means one less far-right extremist leader in the world, sprouting lurid deranged theories into thin air.

Lula’s win, on the other hand, marks the most significant example yet of Latin America hurtling to the left since 2018, with the election of Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador in Mexico. It is an anti-incumbent fervour – usually ignited by frustration with far-right wing leaders – that has caused this shift. While there are challenges for these new governments facing a bleak economic future, it is more so a cautionary tale for Europe, very much entrenched in the claws of surging far-right party power. There’s a lot to learn, to debate and reflect, on Brazil’s divorce from Bolsonaro. Once it actually happens.

If recent history has taught us anything, it’s that far-right extremism, once benched in the presidential chair, is hard to shuffle back to the fringes. Leaders across the world have welcomed the former President Lula, but Bolsonaro has remained suspiciously – or expectedly – silent, even as his key allies accepted the results. The chances of him accepting the election results and having a clean departure are not particularly high. Inspired by Donald Trump, of course, Jair Bolsonaro, for the past several months, continued to cast doubts on the voting machines as “rife with fraud” – without any credible evidence, and against the evidence existing to validate that Brazil’s voting machine system is hard to tamper with.

During a speech in June, Bolsonaro said, “If need be, we will go to war.” Brazil’s elections saw their social media turn into a wild misinformation-firing machine, with a “direct role” from Bolsonaro, according to a document from the federal police. Researchers warned about military coup planning on platforms such as Telegram and Gettr. Bolsonaro’s election tactics to tarnish democracy makes it probable that he will refuse to step down in some way or contest the results.

A post-election coup might not be possible, though, even if the nation has a history of military coup and even if Bolsonaro happens to be a fan of that sadistic military dictatorship from 1964 to 1985. According to dozens of Bolsonaro administration officials, military generals, federal judges, election authorities, members of Congress and foreign diplomats, Bolsonaro ultimately couldn’t garner the institutional support needed to stage a successful coup.