US-Bangladesh Ties: Trump win may shift the focus to trade from values

The US foreign policy towards Bangladesh will not see any change as far as state relations are concerned but the nature of the relations could see some changes if Republican candidate Donald Trump wins the elections, said foreign policy experts.

“The focus of the US-Bangladesh relationship now is to help stabilise Bangladesh’s economy,” said Michael Kugelman, director of the South Asia Institute at the Washington-based Wilson Centre.

USAID recently concluded a new agreement with Bangladesh for providing development aid and the Biden administration is looking to support Bangladesh in the reform agenda.

“That type of emphasis on relationship will not be of particular interest if Trump comes to power,” he told The Daily Star.

Trump’s track record as president previously suggests he sees relations with other countries as relatively transactional.

“I don’t think he will be interested in framing a relationship around the US helping rebuild Bangladesh,” Kugelman said.

If Trump wins, he will have a friendly and workable relationship with Bangladesh, but the lance would be a bit narrow. It will focus on great power competition and ensure that Bangladesh does not become dependent on China.

“Trump will have a commercial relationship as far as it ensures US interests. He would continue that Bangladesh exports to the US, but he may move away from the assistance for reforms that the current administration is providing.”

Bangladesh exports more than $10 billion worth of products in a year.

Trump would be keener on trade relations than on values including human rights, democracy and labour rights, Kugelman added.

Previous track record suggest that Trump is anti-immigrant and if he implements the same policy as he pledged to the voters, the Bangladeshis, alongside other immigrants, living there without proper documents will face consequences, said M Humayun Kabir, a former Bangladesh ambassador to the US.

“This may negatively affect the Bangladeshis,” he told the correspondent.

The US is a top destination for higher studies for Bangladeshi youths.

In the 2022-23 academic year, nearly 14,000 Bangladeshis went to the US for studies.

The rising trend may be reversed if there’s a strict immigration policy under the next presidency, he added.

The US has been the number one donor for the Rohingya crisis, said Kabir, also the president of the Bangladesh Enterprise Institute.

As Trump wants to reduce global humanitarian support, the Rohingya funding too may be affected if he is elected.

More importantly, Trump does not like the idea of climate change, which is the opposite of the Biden administration.

“Thus, Bangladesh being at the forefront of climate change could see reduced funding for climate actions. This will also create a crisis globally.”

Human rights and democracy are core foreign policy agendas for the US — whoever is president there.

Therefore, if Bangladesh goes the right way and improves its governance and human rights situation, not only the US, but other countries will be comfortable working with the authorities here. Foreign companies will also be coming here.

Asked if Chief Adviser Muhammad Yunus’ friendship with some of the top Democrats will have any implications under the Trump administration, Kabir said the US foreign policy is based on state relations rather than personal friendships.

In the case of the victory of Kamal Harris, the US-Bangladesh relations will continue as it is now.

“It can even get better,” Kabir added.