What’s next for Canada after Trudeau’s resignation

Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau on Monday said he would step down in the coming months after nine years in power, bowing to legislators alarmed by his Liberal Party’s miserable pre-election polling numbers. Here is what might happen next:

WILL TRUDEAU LEAVE OFFICE IMMEDIATELY?

No. Trudeau will stay on both as prime minister and head of the ruling Liberal Party for now. Unlike the process in other countries like Australia, where party leaders are elected by legislators and can be removed overnight, in Canada they are chosen by special leadership conventions that can take months to organize.

WILL AN ELECTION BE HELD?

No. Trudeau announced that parliament – which had been due to resume work on Jan. 27 – would instead be prorogued, or suspended, until March 24. This means opposition parties who had originally planned to unveil non-confidence motions to bring his minority government down as soon as they could after January 27 will now have to wait until some time in May since the government controls the agenda for most of each session.

HOW ELSE COULD THE LIBERALS BE REMOVED FROM POWER?

Under the original parliamentary calendar, the House of Commons elected chamber had been due to vote on spending measures in late March. This would trigger a confidence vote.  It is unclear whether that vote would still be scheduled for late March and if it were, whether the opposition parties would vote to bring down the Liberals, whether they are led by Trudeau or a new party head.

HOW LONG DOES THE PARTY HAVE TO CHOSE A NEW LEADER?

The nightmare Liberal scenario is that the party takes so long to choose a new leader that it has to fight the next election with Trudeau still in charge. It is likely therefore to announce a shortened contest designed to ensure that Trudeau’s replacement is in office as soon as possible.

WOULD A NEW LEADER HELP THE LIBERALS AVOID DEFEAT?

Polls strongly indicate that the Liberals will lose the election, no matter who the leader is. But the scale of the defeat could be tempered if Trudeau is not in charge.

WHO MIGHT RUN TO REPLACE TRUDEAU AS LIBERAL LEADER?

The prospect of an election mauling might deter some candidates, especially if the party is crushed and ends up a shadow of its current self. Those who could run include Innovation Minister Francois-Philippe Champagne, Transport Minister Anita Anand, Foreign Minister Melanie Joly as well as former finance minister Chrystia Freeland.

IS THERE ANY OTHER WAY TRUDEAU CAN BE FORCED OUT?

Ultimate constitutional power in Canada lies with Governor General Mary Simon, who is the personal representative of Britain’s King Charles, the head of state. She can in theory remove Trudeau, but there is virtually no chance of that happening. “The governor general won’t dismiss a prime minister who still holds the confidence of the Commons,” said Philippe Lagasse, a professor and constitutional expert at Ottawa’s Carleton University.